ETH/BTC downside: $1.3B hacker sell pressure

Binance hacker ETH vs the Bybit and Bitget washes · built 2026-11-03 21:04 UTC · not financial advice

ETH/BTC now

0.02943

ETH $2,292 · BTC $77,870

Sell pressure modeled

$1.3B

≈ 567K ETH at today's price

vs ETH 24h volume

16%

of ~$8.0B/day. Spread over 10 days ≈ 1.6%/day

Bybit analog

−11.7%

ETH/BTC 14d after a ~$1.2B THOR wash (low −14%)

ETH/BTC after each hack

% change from the hack moment. X axis is days after the hack. Binance 4h closes, UTC.

How the three compare

Hack	ETH washed	ETH/BTC +3d	+7d	+14d	14d low
Bybit · 21 Feb 2025	~$1.2B via THOR in ~10d	−0.2%	−6.4%	−11.7%	−14.1%
Bitget · 24 Sep 2026	36.7K ETH (small)	0.0%	+0.4%	−5.2%	−6.2%
Binance · 29 Oct 2026	just starting (6–91 ETH swaps today)	+0.1%	—	+1.4% now (day 6)	−2.3% so far

Bybit is the honest comp: similar size, same ETH→BTC route. But Feb–Mar 2025 was also a broad market dump, and Bybit itself bought back its missing ETH within days, so not all of that −12% is the hacker. Bitget's −5% came weeks later and was mostly macro; 36.7K ETH was too small to move it.

Downside levels if Bybit repeats

Scenario	ETH/BTC	Move	What it looks like
Absorbed	0.02855	−3%	Slow drip over weeks, ETH bid elsewhere, nodes slow/block flow
Bybit-like at 7d	0.02755	−6.4%	~half washed in a week, roughly back to the Oct 29–30 lows (0.02835) and below
Bybit-like at 14d	0.02599	−11.7%	Full $1.3B washed in ~10d plus weak market
Bybit low	0.02528	−14.1%	Near the 1y low (0.02525)

What decides it

NowETH is open on THORChain and the hacker is testing small

If batches go $500k+ and keep coming

Wash is on, lean short ETH/BTC

Bybit pace was ~$120M/day. Targets 0.02755 then 0.02599

If it stays test size

No real pressure yet

Range 0.0284–0.0297 holds. Wait for size

If nodes block or re-halt ETH

Pressure moves to slower routes

DEXs/OTC drip, much smaller ETH/BTC impact

Bybit wash timeline

21 Feb 2025 14:13 UTC

~$1.46B drained from a Bybit cold wallet

ETH/BTC actually ran +5% in 2 days: Bybit's ETH buyback offset the hack

24 Feb 2025

THOR wash ramps up

ETH/BTC loses the bounce, −6% by day 7

~3 Mar 2025

~85% washed to BTC in ~10 days

ETH/BTC −10% at day 10, bottom 0.02428 on 4 Mar (−14%)