RUNE: trapped long or long the news?

Liquidity check and a cleaner way to play the THORChain wash · built 2026-10-30 16:53 UTC · not financial advice

Price

$0.645

24h range

0.584–0.712

Mcap

$212M

Binance depth ±2%

$86K bid / $63K ask

HL perp OI / 24h vol

$2.7M / $4.6M

Hacker ETH on THOR

None yet

How liquid is it really

The $110M "24h volume" is mostly THORChain's own pools. On Binance, RUNE/USDT trades about $12M a day, and only about $86K of bids sit within 2% of price. A $2M sale is roughly two days of Binance volume and more than 20 times that depth, so it had to be worked out slowly. That fits the bleed from 0.71 back to 0.62. If the other $2M also gets closed, that is more overhang.

Price, last 45 days

What to watch

Now

Friend's fund holds the other ~$2M

Its exit is supply that the thin books have to absorb.

~Sun 1 Nov UTC (if Bitget timing repeats)

Wallets start splitting

The first tell. The watch alerts on any hacker tx into the THOR router or vaults.

~Mon 2 Nov UTC, could be later

ETH selling for BTC on THORChain starts

About 7 times Bitget's ETH, roughly 10 days of selling at Bitget's pace, so a long window to ride.

Any time

Wash goes elsewhere, or a sell-the-news fade

In the Bybit case RUNE ran about +38% in 5 days, then round-tripped.

Decision tree

NowLong RUNE near 0.64, size too big

IF size keeps you up at night

Cut to a size you can hold

Use limit orders near the ask, not market sweeps. Keep a core position for the ping.

IF a THOR deposit alert fires

Re-add on the confirmed flow

Selling runs for days, so there is time to get in after the alert

IF daily close under 0.579

Out

The premium is gone. Next levels are 0.55, then 0.48.

Trade plan

Take	Smaller core long now, plus a re-add only on a confirmed hacker deposit into THORChain
Entry	Core: held around 0.64. Add: on the alert, scaling in with limit orders
Invalidation	Daily close below 0.579 (about -10%)
Targets	0.72 (+12%), 0.78 (+21%), runner to 0.90 (+40%)
R:R	About 1.2 : 1 to 0.72, and 4 : 1 to 0.90
Alert coverage	51 hacker wallets checked every ~2–3 min for ETH into the THOR router or vaults. It misses fresh wallets that haven't been followed yet and non-ETH routes.